In, Australian Bureau of Statistics. linear interpolation between Census estimates. If in any doubt, the ABS recommends that data users conduct their own analysis, for example similar to that illustrated in the examples above. Number of births projected under Series B. Huon Valley (10.2%, up from 9.2% in 2016), Tasmania West Coast (9.8%, up from 8.5% in 2016). These adjustments may cause the sum of rows or columns to differ by small amounts from table totals. The increases were greatest in: The number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Western Australia (WA) increased from 75,978 in 2016 to 88,693 in 2021. In 2016 there were 101.0 males per 100 females. Alice Springs Town Camps (96.2% people, down from 95.0% in 2016), Alpurrutulam (95.7%, up from 92.1% in 2016). Cherbourg LGA had the largest proportion (96.4%) of people who identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Of the 131 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in NSW in 2021, Central Coast (NSW) LGA had the highest number (17,047) of people who identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. These three states comprised almost three-quarters of the total Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population (732,800 people or 74.5%). For more information about the derivation and use of adjustment factors in the compilation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life tables for the states and territories, seeLife Tables for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 20152017. Data available in 2.4 in Northern Territory from Data downloads. (up 70.7% from 99 people to 169), Gladstone (up 57.7% from 2,503 people to 3,946). This will result in fewer Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 0-14 years in 2031 than in Series B (317,200 compared with 324,900). Katherine exc. Accordingly, non-Indigenous population estimates correspond to the difference between the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates and the total population estimates. 421,200 people (low series) and 440,700 people (high series) in Major Cities, at an average annual growth rate of between 2.3% and 2.6% per year, 463,800 people (low series) and 485,000 people (high series) in Inner and Outer Regional areas, at an average annual growth rate of between 1.9% and 2.2% per year. Projected data is based on series B (high projection for 2006-based). Sensitivity analysis was undertaken into the effect of life expectancy at birth assumptions on the size of the future Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and the number of projected deaths.The below table shows the projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait population and deaths in 2031 under the three life expectancy at birth assumptions:Based on the series B life expectancy assumption (annual increase of 0.40 years for males and 0.25 years for females): Assuming an annual increase of 0.25 years for males and 0.20 years for females (series I) it is projected that: Assuming an annual increase of 0.45 years for males and 0.35 years for females (series H): a. Assumptions relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates, life expectancy at birth and interstate migration are at levels specified for Series B.b. when there is a known quality issue in the data from earlier Censuses. Births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men, where the mother's Indigenous status was non-Indigenous or not stated, per 1,000 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men.b. a. The 2020 Census is in full swing in the United States. there were minor changes in the age distribution. If you are an admin, please authenticate by logging in again. no. The Western Islands includes: Badu Island, Kubin (Moa Island), Mabuiag Island and St Pauls (Moa Island). Circular Head LGA had the largest proportion (17.3%) of people who identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. For more Census data, see Find Census data. Then you can access your favorite statistics via the star in the header. At the 2016 Australian census, 265,685 people in New South Wales were Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander. This reflects higher birth rates and lower life expectancy in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population compared with that in the non-Indigenous population. In 2021 there were 101.7 males per 100 females. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1,065,200people in 2031 (up from 798,400 in Series B in 2016). Share of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population breakdown in Australia in 2019, by state [Graph], Australian Bureau of Statistics, & Australian Indigenous HealthInfoNet, August 24, 2020 . In such situations, Option 2 should be used.As with all advice the ABS provides, advice given in this article should be considered in relation to the specific requirements of data users and the appropriateness of the advice for their needs. In the 2011 Census, 548,368 people or 2.5% of the total population identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. The absolute size of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in child-bearing age groups (15-49 years) therefore increases relatively consistently throughout the projection period. . Therefore, an annual increase in paternity rate of 2% is assumed for high series. Launceston LGA had the highest number (2,873) of people who identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Show publisher information The increases between 2016 and 2021 were larger than those recorded between 2011 and 2016. The next LGA with the largest proportion of people who identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander was East Arnhem (89.9%). Uses five-year average deaths, and population for the middle year of the five-year period. A single time series of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander estimates for the period 2006 to 2016 has been produced. Data available in table 2 in Australia from Data downloads. ABS population projections do not predict or forecast how the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population will look in the future. Includes Other Territories. Births per Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander woman.e. Rates are for total population of NSW, QLD, WA, SA and NT. Therefore, there is no reliable source other than birth registrations for calculating paternity rate. This process is repeated until the first year of the estimation period is reached.Estimates and projections presented in this release supersede estimates and projections based on earlier censuses. 75.5 years for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander females. the ratio of males to females was steady. The best of the best: the portal for top lists & rankings: Strategy and business building for the data-driven economy: Industry-specific and extensively researched technical data (partially from exclusive partnerships). . Due to rounding, proportions may not add to 100%. [25] 3.14 As shown in Figure 3.1 below, the extent of the over-representation varied by state and territory. Profit from the additional features of your individual account. There are 89 Indigenous Locations (ILOCs) in South Australia in the 2021-2026 Indigenous Structure. Wollongong (6,945 people, up from 5,349 in 2016), Maitland (6,739 people, up from 4,090 in 2016), Wyong-North-East (6,610 people, up from 4,612 in 2016). Assumed increases in paternity rates are applied uniformly across relevant age groups. Of this increase: For more information see Census of Population and Housing: Understanding the Increase in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Countsand Occasional Paper: Population Issues, Indigenous Australians(cat. Western Australia (between 1.7% and 2.0%), Queensland's share is projected to increase from 27.7% in 2016 to 28.9% in 2031, Victoria's share is projected to increase from 7.2% in 2016 to 7.9% in 2031, ACT's share is projected to increase from 0.9% in 2016 to 1.1% in 2031. 4708.0), Source(s): Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2016. As with the TFR, the time series of the TPR is based on population estimates which are not strictly comparable over time. Percentage of the State or Territory's total population that is Indigenous . Both sets of projections are based on assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and migration (i.e. Total population beans Indian and Alaska Native ( 2020 census) [1] [2] One race: 3,727,135 are registered In combination with one or more of the other races listed: 5,938,923 Total: 9,666,058 ~ 2.9% of the total U.S. population. The ACT ILOCs with the largest number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in 2021 were: Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2011,2016 and 2021. The uncertainty increases as the time from the base year increases. median age increased from 25 years to 26 years. The below table shows the projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait population and births in 2031 under three fertility assumptions:Based on the Series B fertility assumption (1.0% annual decline in fertility rates): Assuming fertility rates remain constant (Series D) it is projected that: Assuming a 1.5% annual decline in fertility rates (Series E): a. Assumptions relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander paternity rates, life expectancy at birth and interstate migration are at levels specified for Series B.b. The increase in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is not wholly explained by demographic factors. These are calculated in two steps: Survivorship ratios from the life tables are then applied to the population by single year of age and sex.Assumptions for mortality at lower geographical levels are based on 2015 to 2017 differentials between Australia and each state or territory, groups of Indigenous Regions, and Remoteness Areas. There are 206 Indigenous Locations (ILOCs) in Queensland in the 2021-2026 Indigenous Structure. Coomalie (down 17.9% from 319 to 262 people). Due to small numbers of deaths registered as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander it was not possible to produce Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life tables for Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. survey data should be compared to the survey population. This is projected to: The number of people aged 65 years and over is 34,000 in 2016. East Arnhem (down 6.5% from 8,439 to 7,893 people). The change in the total population between Censuses remains lower than 10%, and is largely consistent with birth, death and migration rates observed between Censuses. The Australian Government defines Indigenous Australians as people who: are of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander descent; identify as being of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origin; and are accepted as such in the communities in which they live or have lived. increase by 0.40 years per year for males and 0.25 years per year for females between 2011 to 2016. increase by 0.30 years per year for males and 0.20 years per year for females between 2006 to 2011. constant interstate migration at levels observed in the 2016 Census, zero net overseas migration with no arrivals and no departures. Between 2016 and 2021, most LGAs in NSW recorded an increase in people who identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Victoria, excluding Melbourne (between 2.5% and 2.8%). Overall, sensitivity analysis shows that varying the assumptions appears to have a minimal effect on the size of the projected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Census records for which Indigenous status was not stated. Annual net migration estimates for each Remoteness Area were calculated in the same way as for states and territories, and were assumed to remain constant over the 15-year projection period. The following provides guidelines to help in making these decisions.The 2016-based series is the most accurate and up-to-date series currently produced by the ABS, including in terms of the methodology used in the Census collection and in the estimation/projection processes. The assumptions are then applied to this new (projected) population to obtain a projected population for the next year. 4726.0) for further information. There are 218 Indigenous Locations (ILOCs) in WA in the 2021-2026 Indigenous Structure. Indigenous status Of the 812,728 people who identified as being of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin in 2021: 91.4% identified as Aboriginal Carol Martin was the first Aboriginal woman elected to a State parliament in Australia (the Western Australian Legislative Assembly) in 2001, . 29.4 . A study (Wilson, Condon and Barnes, 2007) found evidence that in the Northern Territory: In addition alternative measures indicate some improvement in mortality of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians between 1991 and 2005: For more information see The Health and Welfare of Australia's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples, Oct 2010, cat. A further 29.2% lived in Queensland and 10.9% lived in Western Australia. Victoria: Melbourne IREG uses the Sydney IREG differential, the rest of Victoria IREG uses the rest of New South Wales IREG group differential, South Australia: Adelaide IREG uses the Perth IREG differential, and the rest of South Australia IREG group uses the rest of Western Australia IREG group differential, Tasmania uses the New South Wales state differential. The population in New South Wales is projected to remain stable at 33% in both 2016 and 2031. Rockingham (3,579 people, up from 2,552 in 2016). The examples use six different series to demonstrate this: The use of different Census-based Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates, while showing a similar pattern of change over time, has a considerable impact on the level of historical child mortality rates, as shown in graph 10. Half (50.2%) of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Victoria lived in Greater Melbourne in 2021. Directly accessible data for 170 industries from 50 countries and over 1 million facts: Get quick analyses with our professional research service. Includes mothers whose Indigenous status was not stated. These are applied to a starting (or base) population, split by sex and single year of age, to obtain a projected population for the following year. In summary, while fertility rates based on birth registrations of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children may provide some evidence for assuming constant or increasing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility, cohort fertility rates based on the 'children ever born' question asked in the Census indicate long-term declines. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia is projected to reach 1,067,900 people in 2031 (up from 1,065,200 in Series B in 2031). no. Over half (55.8%) of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in SA lived in Greater Adelaide in 2021. Net overseas migration is assumed to be zero, that is, no arrivals or departures. a series which uses each Census-based series for the two years before and after that Census (option 1), a series which transitions between Census-based series in a way that minimises the 'jump' in the transition year (option 2). View available Microdata and TableBuilder, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples, 1986,1996, 2006, 2001 and 2016 Censuses of Population and Housing, Life Tables for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 20152017, Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) to 2066, Census of Population and Housing: Understanding the Increase in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Counts, Occasional Paper: Population Issues, Indigenous Australians, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2016, Information Paper: Perspectives on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Identification in Selected Data Collection Contexts, Linking Death registrations to the 2016 Census, Estimates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, June 2016, Technical Note 1: Estimated Resident Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Population - Method of Calculation, Projected population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, Australia, state and territories, 2016 to 2031, Projected population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, Remoteness Area, 2016 to 2031, Projected population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, Indigenous Regions, 2016 to 2031, Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians methodology, 2006 - 2031, Annual increase of 0.25 years for males and 0.20 years for females (series I), Annual increase of 0.40 years for males and 0.25 years for females (series B), Annual increase of 0.45 years for males and 0.35 years for females (series H). Serpentine-Jarrahdale (up 69.1% from 544 to 920 people). Gradually increased to 2.5 in 2010, before slowly decreasing over the period 2012 to 2016. an annual increase of 2.0% in paternity rates. The index value for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population was 3.5 for males and 3.6 for females, compared with 2.9 for males and 3.1 for females in the total Australian population. Three assumptions (high, medium and low) are used for fertility, paternity and mortality. Information on data quality issues related to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander estimates and projections are available in the Quality Declaration. Estimate and projections based on the 2016 Census.b. At the same time, it is also necessary to backcast the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, because each Census count is sufficiently different from the last, due to a range of non-demographic factors, such as changing levels of self identification in the Census.The uncertainty in the Census and component data occurs because: The differences between the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates derived from each Census thus tend to be larger than demographic changes can account for. there were minor changes in the age distribution. Tuggeranong (2,728 people, up from 2,088 in 2016), Belconnen (2,207 people, up from 1,611 in 2016), Narrabundah Weston (1,358 people, up from 1,181 in 2016). This may or may not happen. Victoria and Tasmania are the same as that for New South Wales, South Australia is the same as that for Western Australia. Moses Nelliman, Badulaig and Meriam, Torres Strait, 2021: Data was collected on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people prior to that [1971] but obviously it was done in a different context, not for their betterment. Low series: The magnitude and duration of any future changes in fertility rates are not possible to gauge accurately, but it's possible that a decline observed between 2012 to 2016 may continue during the projection period. PRINT Listen American Indians and Alaska Natives - By the Numbers When Europeans first arrived in North America, approximately five hundred sovereign Indian nations were prospering in what is now the United States. This is due to the increase in the number of women of child-bearing ages over the projection period as well as the assumption of increasing paternity rates.As a result: a. Three life expectancy at birth assumptions have been used to produce the three main series. Arrival and departure rates for the states and territories were calculated by single year of age and sex and adjustments were made where appropriate to ensure the age/sex profiles of projected populations were plausible. Zero net overseas migration occurred across the entire series with no arrivals and departures. There were notable increases in. Depending on how the 2021 Census-based estimate compares with the 2016 Census-based estimate, current indicator trends may change as a result of rebasing any population estimates to the new Census.Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population projections are produced to illustrate potential future demographic changes to the currently identified population. Includes Other Territories. Greater Geelong LGA had the highest number (3,562) of people who identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. 2901.0). Additional assumptions regarding the remaining demographic factors for the projections are: By considering the above assumptions, nine projection series were produced. State population: 731,545 Biggest tribe: Yup'ik Yup'ik population: 34,675 Alaska has the highest number of indigenous people per capita. Data available in table 1.1 in Victoria from Data downloads. Over this period life expectancy at birth is assumed to: Net interstate migration for each of the above two intercensal periods was based on levels observed in each respective intercensal period. Data available in table 1.1 in New South Wales from Data downloads. This option uses the best available number for each population and hence yields better quality estimates for non-Indigenous population. To apply assumptions on life expectancy at birth for alternative geographies, Indigenous Regions (IREGs) were aggregated into two groups for each state and territory (except Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory): To account for under-identification of deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people at smaller geographic level, the number of registered deaths of Aboriginal and Torres Islander people for each IREG group in 2015 to 2017 was adjusted using state and territory adjustment factors from the 2016 to 2017 Census and deaths linked data. Method of calculation is the same as that used for the National Indigenous Reform Agreement (NIRA), National Healthcare Agreement (NHA) and Health Performance Framework (HPF) reporting (that is, the average of five years of deaths is divided by the mid-point population estimates and multiplied by 100,000). The methods for calculating each population are comparable as both populations are projections. At the start of European settlement in the late 18th century, the Aboriginal population of Australia is estimated to have been somewhere between 770,000 and 1.1 million, before falling to approximately 100,000 at the start of the twentieth century. Migration flows internationally and interstate. In Far West Coast SA and NPY lands there were 91.5 males per 100 females and in Ngarrindjeri there were 107.0 males per 100 females. The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population had a younger age structure than the non-Indigenous population, with both larger proportions of young people and smaller proportions of older people. Data available in 1.1 in Western Australia from Data downloads. To determine if the age distribution of the 2016 and 2021 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations have changed because of non-demographic factors (such as changing identification over time), the index of dissimilarity is calculated, which measures the overall difference between the two age distributions (Shyrock et al., 1976:131). For more Census data, see Find Census data, see Find Census data ( i.e per! Over time or forecast how the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander females therefore, annual... % is assumed to be zero, that is Indigenous to 169 ), Gladstone ( 70.7., source ( s ): Australian Historical population statistics, 2016 research service 70.7 % from to... State and Territory are an admin, please authenticate by logging in again this is to... And lower life expectancy in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander five-year average deaths, and population for the 2006... 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